It was eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager admonished him for not reading a through-ball. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason for the side's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. After the England international swept in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard query to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, while the wins have stacked up.
As per the data, in only two games has the side had an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side that have just won a ten-match winning streak, they appear strangely fragile – yet currently the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping Rogers to save the day with some precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened against Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, curled just inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa must confront as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the player he showed during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.
