Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
